Latest Data – Comprehensive COT Weekly Summary – All Trader Categories

This weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) summary provides a complete overview of institutional positioning across all trader categories. Updated Dec 09, 2025, this report aggregates CFTC data from 0 markets including currencies, commodities, indices, metals, energies, and agricultural futures.

The All Types Weekly Summary is the most comprehensive COT analysis tool available, showing side-by-side comparison of:

• Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators) – Hedge funds, CTAs, and institutional traders
• Commercial Traders (Hedgers) – Producers, processors, and commercial enterprises
• Non-Reportable Traders (Small Traders) – Retail and small institutional positions

Understanding Multi-Category COT Analysis

Professional traders use this comparative view to identify divergences between trader categories. When commercials hedge aggressively while speculators build opposite positions, it often signals major trend reversals in currencies, commodities, and indices.

Key Metrics Tracked Across All Categories

• NET CHANGE Week-over-Week – Identifies which trader groups are accumulating or distributing positions
• NET POSITIONS – Shows bullish/bearish bias for each trader category across all markets
• Cross-Market Correlations – Reveals institutional flows between related markets (EUR/USD vs Gold, Oil vs USD, etc.)
• Sentiment Divergences – Highlights when different trader types hold opposite views on market direction

Trading Applications for Weekly COT Summary

Professional money managers use the All Types Weekly Summary to:

1. Identify Contrarian Opportunities – When small traders are extremely bullish while commercials hedge bearish, reversals often follow
2. Confirm Trend Strength – Large speculator positioning in alignment with price trends validates momentum strategies
3. Risk Management – Commercial hedging activity provides early warnings of supply/demand imbalances
4. Portfolio Positioning – Track institutional money flows across currencies, commodities, and financial futures

Market Coverage – 0 Futures Contracts

This comprehensive weekly summary covers all major CFTC-reported futures markets:

• Currencies: EUR/USD (6E), GBP/USD (6B), USD/JPY (6J), AUD/USD (6A), CAD/USD (6C), CHF/USD (6S), NZD/USD (6N), USD Index (DX)
• Indices: E-Mini S&P 500 (ES), E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQ), E-Mini Dow (YM), E-Mini Russell 2000 (RTY), VIX Futures (VX)
• Commodities: Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Crude Oil (CL), Natural Gas (NG), Copper (HG)
• Agricultural: Corn (ZC), Soybeans (ZS), Wheat (ZW), Cotton (CT), Sugar (SB), Coffee (KC)
• Bonds: 10-Year T-Notes (ZN), 30-Year T-Bonds (ZB), 5-Year T-Notes (ZF)

CFTC Data Source & Update Schedule

All data sourced directly from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders reports. The CFTC publishes COT data every Friday at 3:30 PM ET, reflecting positions held as of Tuesday close. Our system automatically updates within minutes of CFTC publication.

Report Date: Dec 09, 2025 | Markets Analyzed: 0 | Source: CFTC Legacy & Disaggregated Reports

Latest Data – Large Speculator (Non-Commercial) Weekly Positioning Report

This specialized weekly summary focuses exclusively on Non-Commercial traders – the category that includes hedge funds, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), managed money, and large institutional speculators. Updated Dec 20, 2025 with data from 0 futures markets.

Non-Commercial traders are often called “smart money” because they:

• Drive Major Market Trends – Large speculators have the capital and analysis to move markets
• Lead Price Movements – Their positioning often precedes major trend changes by 2-4 weeks
• Provide Contrarian Signals – Extreme positioning (>90% of open interest) signals potential reversals
• Confirm Breakouts – Aggressive accumulation validates technical breakouts in currencies and commodities

Non-Commercial Trader Definition (CFTC Classification)

According to CFTC regulations, Non-Commercial traders are market participants who do NOT use futures for commercial hedging purposes. This category includes:

• Hedge Funds – Macro funds, commodity funds, systematic trend followers
• Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) – Professional futures managers
• Managed Money Accounts – Institutional speculative portfolios
• Large Individual Speculators – High net worth traders exceeding CFTC reporting thresholds

These traders must report positions when holdings exceed CFTC-mandated levels (varies by contract, typically 50-150 contracts depending on market).

Weekly Summary Metrics Explained

NET CHANGE (Week-over-Week)

Shows how many contracts large speculators added or reduced in the past week. Positive values indicate accumulation (bullish), negative values indicate distribution (bearish).

NET POSITIONS

Total long contracts minus total short contracts held by Non-Commercial traders. A NET LONG position suggests hedge funds are bullish on the market; NET SHORT indicates bearish positioning.

LONG Positions

Total number of long (buy) contracts held by large speculators. Tracks bullish institutional exposure.

SHORT Positions

Total number of short (sell) contracts held by large speculators. Monitors bearish institutional exposure.

% of Open Interest (% OI)

Percentage of total market open interest held long or short by Non-Commercial traders. Values above 50% indicate dominant positioning; above 70% suggests extreme positioning (potential reversal zones).

CHANGE IN LONGS/SHORTS

Week-over-week change in long or short positions. Helps identify whether NET CHANGE is driven by new longs, short covering, new shorts, or long liquidation.

Trading Strategies Using Non-Commercial Data

1. Trend Following Confirmation

When large speculators are NET LONG and adding positions (positive NET CHANGE) while price is trending up, the trend is validated by “smart money” and likely to continue. Apply this across currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil), and indices (ES, NQ).

2. Contrarian Reversals (Extreme Positioning)

When Non-Commercial traders reach extreme NET positions (historically >3 standard deviations from mean):

• Extreme NET LONG – Watch for distribution (negative NET CHANGE) as signal for trend exhaustion
• Extreme NET SHORT – Monitor for covering (positive NET CHANGE) indicating bottom formation

3. Divergence Analysis

When price makes new highs but large speculators reduce NET LONG positions (bearish divergence), or price makes new lows while NET SHORT positions decline (bullish divergence), reversals often follow within 2-6 weeks.

4. Cross-Market Flow Analysis

Track institutional money flows between correlated markets:

• EUR/USD vs Gold – Hedge fund rotation between dollar hedges
• Crude Oil vs USD Index – Energy/currency inverse correlation
• S&P 500 vs VIX – Risk-on/risk-off sentiment shifts

Market Coverage – 0 Futures Contracts

Complete Non-Commercial positioning data for all major CFTC-reported markets including:

• Major Currencies: EURO FX, BRITISH POUND, JAPANESE YEN, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, CANADIAN DOLLAR, SWISS FRANC, NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR, USD INDEX
• Stock Indices: E-MINI S&P 500, E-MINI NASDAQ 100, E-MINI DOW, E-MINI RUSSELL 2000, VIX FUTURES, NIKKEI 225
• Metals: GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM
• Energy: CRUDE OIL WTI, BRENT CRUDE, NATURAL GAS, HEATING OIL, RBOB GASOLINE
• Agricultural: CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, SOYBEAN OIL, SOYBEAN MEAL, COTTON, SUGAR, COFFEE, COCOA
• Interest Rates: 10-YEAR T-NOTES, 30-YEAR T-BONDS, 5-YEAR T-NOTES, 2-YEAR T-NOTES, EURODOLLAR

Update Schedule & Data Integrity

CFTC Publication: Every Friday at 3:30 PM ET (reflects Tuesday close positions)
Our Update: Automated processing within 5-10 minutes of CFTC release
Current Report Date: Dec 20, 2025
Data Source: CFTC Legacy Reports (Futures Only) & Disaggregated Reports (Futures + Options Combined)

Latest Data – Commercial Hedger Positioning – Real Economy Signals

This weekly summary focuses exclusively on Commercial traders – businesses that use futures markets to hedge real-world commodity and financial risk. Updated Dec 20, 2025 covering 0 futures markets.

Commercial traders provide the most reliable supply/demand signals because they are:

• Real Economy Participants – Producers, processors, exporters, importers, banks, pension funds
• Hedging Actual Inventory – Their positions reflect real supply/demand, not speculation
• Counter-Trend at Extremes – Commercials are typically right at major turning points (they buy when speculators panic sell)
• Wrong in Trending Markets – They hedge gradually, so they’re often opposite to trend direction (this validates the trend)

Commercial Trader Definition (CFTC Classification)

According to CFTC regulations, Commercial traders are entities that use futures markets to hedge business operations. This category includes:

For Commodities (Agriculture, Energy, Metals):

• Producers: Farmers, mining companies, oil producers (hedge by selling futures)
• Processors: Food manufacturers, refineries (hedge both buying and selling)
• Exporters/Importers: Trade houses managing international flows
• Storage Operators: Grain elevators, oil terminals

For Currencies:

• Banks: Market makers managing FX inventory and customer flow
• Multinational Corporations: Companies hedging international revenue/expenses
• Exporters/Importers: Businesses hedging cross-border trade risk

For Financial Futures (Bonds, Indices):

• Pension Funds: Hedging equity exposure or duration risk
• Insurance Companies: Managing asset/liability duration matching
• Banks/Dealers: Hedging swap books and client positions

Reading Commercial Positioning Signals

Agricultural Commodities (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, etc.)

Commercials NET SHORT (normal state) – Producers/farmers hedging crop inventory by selling futures. The more NET SHORT, the more supply they expect.

Commercials covering shorts (less NET SHORT) – Signals tight supply or demand expectations improving. Bullish for prices.

Commercials NET LONG (rare) – Processors/buyers aggressively hedging purchases, indicating very tight supply. Extremely bullish signal.

Energy Markets (Crude Oil, Natural Gas)

Commercials NET SHORT – Producers (oil companies) hedging production. Normal state.

Commercials NET LONG – Refineries, airlines, utilities hedging consumption. Signals expected supply tightness. Bullish.

Extreme Commercial Hedging – When oil producers massively increase short hedges, it often marks price tops (they lock in high prices).

Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)

Commercial Bank Positioning – Banks are usually opposite to speculators (they provide liquidity). When banks are NET LONG EUR and speculators NET SHORT, it validates bearish trend.

Corporate Hedging Surges – Sudden increases in commercial activity can signal major moves (corporations hedging large exposure changes).

Stock Indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ)

Commercials (Dealers) NET SHORT – Normal state, they’re short futures against long client positions.

Commercials covering shorts aggressively – Signals dealers expect upside (they don’t want to be short). Bullish.

Commercials increasing shorts dramatically – Dealers expect downside or are hedging large client longs. Can signal tops.

Advanced Commercial Trading Strategies

1. Extreme Commercial Positioning (Mean Reversion)

When Commercial NET positions reach historical extremes (>2.5 standard deviations from 3-year mean):

• Extreme Commercial LONG – They’re hedging purchases aggressively = supply concerns = likely price bottom
• Extreme Commercial SHORT – They’re hedging sales aggressively = oversupply concerns = likely price top

Historical accuracy: ~75% for reversals within 4-8 weeks in agricultural and energy markets.

2. Commercial vs Speculator Divergence

The most reliable signals occur when Commercials and Non-Commercials hold extreme opposite positions:

• Commercials NET LONG + Specs NET SHORT = Strong buy signal (smart hedgers accumulating)
• Commercials NET SHORT + Specs NET LONG = Strong sell signal (hedgers locking in high prices)

3. Trending Market Validation

In strong trends, Commercials are “wrong” (they hedge against the trend). Use this to confirm trend:

• Bull Market: Commercials increasingly NET SHORT = validates uptrend (producers selling into rally)
• Bear Market: Commercials increasingly NET LONG = validates downtrend (buyers purchasing dips)

4. Supply Chain Early Warning System

For commodities, aggressive commercial hedging provides 4-12 week early warning of supply/demand shifts:

• Grain Commercials reducing shorts = Expect tight supply, higher prices ahead
• Oil Commercials adding longs = Refineries see supply concerns, bullish
• Metal Commercials covering shorts = Mining companies see strong demand, bullish

Market Coverage – 0 Futures Contracts

Complete Commercial hedger positioning for all major CFTC-reported markets:

• Agricultural: CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT (Chicago/Kansas/Spring), SOYBEAN OIL, SOYBEAN MEAL, COTTON, SUGAR #11, COFFEE, COCOA, LIVE CATTLE, LEAN HOGS
• Energy: CRUDE OIL WTI, BRENT CRUDE, NATURAL GAS, HEATING OIL, RBOB GASOLINE, LOW SULFUR GASOIL
• Metals: GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM
• Currencies: All major FX pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, NZD/USD, USD INDEX)
• Financial: 10-YEAR T-NOTES, 30-YEAR T-BONDS, 5-YEAR T-NOTES, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW, RUSSELL 2000

Data Source & Update Information

Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports (Legacy & Disaggregated)
Publication: Every Friday 3:30 PM ET (data as of prior Tuesday close)
Current Report: Dec 20, 2025
Markets Covered: 0 futures contracts
Historical Data: 10+ years for trend analysis and extreme positioning calculations

Latest Data – Small Trader Positioning – Retail Sentiment Indicator

This weekly summary tracks Non-Reportable traders – small retail and institutional traders whose positions fall below CFTC reporting thresholds. Updated Dec 20, 2025 covering 0 futures markets.

Non-Reportable traders are valuable as a contrarian indicator because:

• Retail traders are typically late to trends – They enter after major moves are mature
• Peak bullishness marks tops – Extreme small trader NET LONG positions often coincide with price peaks
• Peak bearishness marks bottoms – Extreme small trader NET SHORT positions often signal price bottoms
• Fade the crowd at extremes – Professional traders profit by taking opposite positions when retail sentiment is extreme

Non-Reportable Trader Definition (CFTC Classification)

According to CFTC regulations, Non-Reportable traders are market participants whose positions are BELOW CFTC reporting thresholds. Reporting thresholds vary by contract (typically 25-150 contracts depending on market liquidity).

This category includes:

• Retail Futures Traders – Individual traders with smaller accounts
• Small Hedge Funds – Boutique funds below reporting thresholds
• Family Offices – Small institutional accounts
• Individual CTAs – Small commodity trading advisors
• Retail Forex Brokers – Aggregated client positions (in currency markets)

Important Note: Non-Reportable positions are calculated by CFTC as: Total Open Interest MINUS (Large Speculator Positions + Commercial Positions). This makes them a residual category representing the collective “retail crowd.”

Why Small Traders Are Wrong at Extremes (Academic Research)

Behavioral Finance Explanation

Academic research on futures markets shows retail traders consistently exhibit:

• Herding Behavior – Following trends after they’re mature, entering at exhaustion points
• Loss Aversion – Holding losing positions too long, forced liquidation at worst prices
• Recency Bias – Extrapolating recent price action indefinitely (“this time is different”)
• Overconfidence – Trading too frequently, getting caught in whipsaws

Statistical Evidence

Studies analyzing 15+ years of COT data show:

• When Non-Reportable traders reach extreme NET LONG (>70th percentile historically), markets decline 60-70% of the time within 4 weeks
• When Non-Reportable traders reach extreme NET SHORT (>70th percentile), markets rally 60-70% within 4 weeks
• This effect is strongest in currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD) and stock indices (ES, NQ)

Advanced Contrarian Trading Strategies

1. Extreme Small Trader Positioning (Pure Fade)

Setup: Non-Reportable traders reach extreme NET positioning (>2 standard deviations from 3-year mean)

Signal:

• Small traders extreme NET LONG = Retail is all-in bullish = SELL signal (fade the crowd)
• Small traders extreme NET SHORT = Retail is all-in bearish = BUY signal (fade the crowd)

Confirmation: Wait for reversal in NET CHANGE (small traders reducing positions = capitulation)

Best Markets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ES), EUR/USD (6E), Gold (GC), Crude Oil (CL)

2. Divergence with Large Speculators (Smart Money vs Dumb Money)

Strongest Contrarian Signal:

• Large Specs NET SHORT + Small Traders NET LONG = Professional money shorting while retail buys = SELL
• Large Specs NET LONG + Small Traders NET SHORT = Professionals accumulating while retail sells = BUY

This divergence is particularly powerful in currencies and commodities where information asymmetry is high.

3. Sentiment Exhaustion (Change Direction Before Price)

Monitor week-over-week CHANGE IN NET POSITIONS:

• Price rising + Small traders reducing LONG (or adding SHORT) = Retail capitulating, professionals taking over = Bullish continuation
• Price falling + Small traders reducing SHORT (or adding LONG) = Retail capitulating, professionals accumulating = Bearish continuation

4. Position Sizing Based on Retail Extremes

Use Non-Reportable positioning to adjust risk:

• Moderate small trader positioning = Standard position size
• Extreme small trader positioning = Increase position size (higher probability setup)
• Small traders neutral (NET = 0) = Reduce position size (no clear sentiment extreme)

Weekly Summary Metrics for Small Traders

NET CHANGE (Week-over-Week)

Shows how retail sentiment is shifting. Large positive NET CHANGE = retail getting increasingly bullish (potential sell signal). Large negative = retail getting bearish (potential buy signal).

NET POSITIONS

Total long minus short positions. Compare to historical percentiles to identify extremes. Use 3-year rolling percentiles:

• >80th percentile NET LONG = Extreme bullishness (contrarian sell signal)
• >80th percentile NET SHORT = Extreme bearishness (contrarian buy signal)

% of Open Interest

Percentage of total market held by small traders. Higher % = more retail participation = more potential for wrong-way moves at extremes.

Market-Specific Small Trader Characteristics

Stock Index Futures (ES, NQ, YM)

Small traders in indices are notoriously wrong at major turns. They max out NET LONG near market tops (think 2000, 2007, 2021 peaks) and max out NET SHORT near bottoms (March 2009, March 2020).

Currency Futures (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)

Retail FX traders (via aggregated broker positions) show strong herding. They chase breakouts and get stopped out. Extreme positioning is a reliable fade signal.

Gold and Silver

Small traders in precious metals are highly emotional (fear/greed driven). They pile into gold/silver on fear spikes and sell on dips – exactly wrong. Extreme NET LONG = top, extreme NET SHORT = bottom.

Crude Oil

Retail oil traders chase energy headlines (geopolitical events, OPEC meetings). They’re usually late and wrong. Use as contrarian indicator especially on news-driven spikes.

Market Coverage – 0 Futures Contracts

Non-Reportable trader sentiment tracking across all major CFTC markets:

• Indices: E-MINI S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW, RUSSELL 2000, VIX, NIKKEI 225
• Currencies: EURO FX, BRITISH POUND, JAPANESE YEN, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, CANADIAN DOLLAR, SWISS FRANC, NZD, USD INDEX
• Commodities: GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, PLATINUM, CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, COTTON, SUGAR, COFFEE
• Bonds: 10-YEAR T-NOTES, 30-YEAR T-BONDS, 5-YEAR T-NOTES

Important Limitations & Risk Warnings

Not Always Wrong: Small traders CAN be right during strong trending markets (2009-2020 bull market, 2014-2015 oil crash). Use other confirmation (price action, commercial positioning).

Lag Effect: Contrarian signals work best at major turning points. In middle of trends, fading small traders can be premature.

Best Used as Filter: Don’t trade purely on Non-Reportable positioning. Use as confirmation filter with technical analysis and other COT categories.

Update Schedule & Data Source

CFTC Publication: Every Friday 3:30 PM ET (positions as of prior Tuesday)
Data Update: Automated within minutes of CFTC release
Current Report Date: Dec 20, 2025
Markets Analyzed: 0 futures contracts
Historical Database: 10+ years for statistical extreme calculations